Case Study
This case study was originally published by TryTank Experimental Laboratory. Learn more about TryTank on their website.
When it comes to discussions about church demographics in America today, the tone can quickly turn apocalyptic. A quick search for “church decline” on prominent church websites (including Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Methodist, Lutheran and Catholic outlets) brings many results that have a similar overall vibe: as the Rev. Dwight Zscheile described, “The overall picture is dire—not one of decline as much as demise within the next generation unless trends change significantly.” Though the demographic crisis has hit the mainline particularly hard, Pew reports suggest a widespread phenomenon across traditions. Lay and ordained church leaders today, acutely aware of this growing problem for their communities at both the local and national levels, have responded in a variety of ways depending on their context and the resources they have at their disposal, some involving expensive church consulting organizations and initiatives.
What if the path to church growth, or at least demographic stability, did not require massive budget expenditures but small, simple initiatives taken at the local level by the people who already care the most—the congregation?
Over the past couple of years, TryTank worked with several small (<40 average Sunday attendees) to medium-sized (<100) congregations on some such initiatives to counter church decline trends and reinvigorate their communities. Though not every initiative was successful, each offered opportunities to learn important lessons that can be applied to any number of different local contexts. Many of the initiatives were successful, and we will discuss both the successes and failures in the paper ahead. None of the initiatives required extensive labor or expense, making them readily adaptable to small, resource-strapped communities for whom outside consulting organizations are out of reach.
This case study will proceed by taking a close look at the churches and some of their initiatives, assessing the efficacy of their actions and the lessons learned in the process. Our conclusion will reflect on the general trends we observed and offer some insights for future initiatives. Though the pandemic surely influenced attendance trends at the parishes in this study, we used data that included both COVID and pre-COVID figures. The differences in each case were significant enough to merit further consideration.